TowerWatch x CPUC Evidence Package

UC Davis campus digital twin — 283M rows, 13 years, 157 buildings
Prepared 2026-04-10 · Live status loading…
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Credibility anchor — the boundary correction

The core finding that defines TowerWatch’s technical credibility is not a big number. It is a correction.

The BWFP Parking PV array (260 kW peak, 389 MWh/year) is outside the RMI microgrid boundary. A four-test empirical check — correlation, level, excess, and energy balance — proved it connects to UC Davis campus distribution upstream of the microgrid, not to RMI BWFP. Every storage and dispatch conclusion built on the prior (incorrect) scope had to be retracted.

Parking vs BWF correlation
r = −0.097
Empirical
PV penetration (microgrid scope)
0.54×
Empirical
PV self-consumption
22.4 %
Empirical
Annual building load
221 MWh
Empirical
Peak demand
165.6 kW
Empirical
Rooftop PV production
119 MWh/yr
Empirical
NPV-optimal battery capacity
30 kWh
Simulated
Storage annual savings
$648 / yr
Simulated
Storage 20-year NPV
$3,319
Simulated
NPV (prior/incorrect scope)
$85,871
Retracted

At 0.54× penetration, naive peak shaving with a 30 kWh battery outperforms all modeled intelligent dispatch strategies. Storage value at RMI BWFP is entirely demand-charge driven; remove SMUD CITS-1 demand charges and NPV is negative at every capacity. Source: docs/cpuc/01_microgrid_results.md.

Claims that will never appear in any CPUC-facing document

  • “Battery was observed dispatching.” — Not observable; no telemetry in PI.
  • “Battery SOC was tracked.” — Not in PI.
  • “Grid export was measured.” — DHWA meter is unidirectional.
  • “Storage savings are empirically confirmed.” — They are simulated only.
  • “The microgrid has 2.3× PV penetration.” — That is campus scope; microgrid scope is 0.54×.

Live campus status

Pulled directly from the running TowerWatch API. Failed fetches show a muted dash; no values are fabricated.

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Active wildfires (California)
NIFC via ArcGIS · 15-min cache
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Davis AQI (EPA AirNow)
Nearest reporting station
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Smoke early-warning state
PurpleAir + camera composite
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Active campus anomalies
ML drift across 157 buildings

Evidence deck (full reading package)

Six documents, 969 lines total. Start with the README for the narrative and the empirical-vs-simulated map.

Architecture footprint

TowerWatch runs on four nodes. No institutional compute procurement was required.

Last verified 2026-04-10 · See 03_digital_twin_architecture.md for sync cadence and model registry.

What TowerWatch has NOT solved yet

Publishing the gap list is the trust move. Every item is verifiable against a committed source file.